Implied vols have been trading below realized vols in USD/CAD since mid-July. Does this chart imply some complacency on the part of Canadian Dollar traders?
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Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.030 – 1.038
Update: A quiet morning for the Canadian Dollar with no major data releases scheduled either in Canada or in the US. Unsurprisingly, there is little volatility in the exchange rate and the Loonie is trading right around Friday’s closing levels of 1.034. The focus continues in the short term to be on any news that might provide a clue as to the Fed’s decision on tapering in September.
The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …
Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.031 – 1.036
Update: The picture is still murky but in the battle of relative economic performance (which is what is driving the USD/CAD exchange rate these days), America is ahead this morning. Construction and productivity figures released this morning in the US came in at or above expectations. In Canada on the other hand, manufacturing sales in June were down 0.5% while economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. Not surprisingly, the Loonie is down 0.3% against the US Dollar and hovering at the 1.034.
The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …
The white line is the current spot price. The orange line is the consensus of the analyst for the end of the year and the red line is the implied…